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Hurricane.com - Advisory



Expires:No;;439427
WTPZ31 KNHC 072034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019

...JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 129.5W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Juliette was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 129.5 West.
Juliette is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and the
low's maximum winds should drop below gale force by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on the
post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Berg



 

Expires:No;;439445
WTPZ41 KNHC 072034
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019

Juliette has not produced any deep convection for almost 18 hours,
and it is therefore being declared a post-tropical cyclone.  A
recent ASCAT-C pass showed a small area of 30-35 kt winds to the
north of the center, and the initial intensity is therefore being
set at 35 kt.  A gradual spin down of the circulation is expected
with Juliette remaining over waters of 24-25C during the next couple
of days.  After 48 hours, water temperatures do increase a bit to
near 26C, but by then incredibly belligerent westerly shear, on the
order of 40-50 kt, is expected to be affecting the remnant low.
Still, the global models carry a low through the next 5 days, and
that is reflected in the official forecast.

The initial motion is 280/11 kt.  The low should turn on a due west
heading for the next 2-3 days, steered by the low-level trade
winds.  After day 3, the remnant low is expected to interact with a
mid- to upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, which
could cause it to turn northwestward and slow down by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 24.4N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;439428
WTPZ21 KNHC 072034
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 128.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 129.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG




 

	

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