Hurricane.com - Advisory

Expires:No;;946481
WTPZ31 KNHC 170239
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2011
 
...IRWIN BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 108.3W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 
IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE
REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON IRWIN.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 


 

Expires:No;;946585
WTPZ41 KNHC 170241
TCDEP1
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IRWIN HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION
FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME
LESS DEFINED.  FOR THESE REASONS...IRWIN NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW.  THE SYSTEM
COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER BURST OR TWO OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE
LOW IT SHOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED.
 
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.  THE
UPDATED NHC FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION WITHIN 72 HOURS.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH
BOTH SHOW DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.
 
THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON IRWIN.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 14.1N 108.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  17/1200Z 14.5N 108.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/0000Z 14.6N 109.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 14.4N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z 14.1N 109.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 


 

    

More information

Expires:No;;946518
WTPZ21 KNHC 170239
TCMEP1
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
0300 UTC MON OCT 17 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.3W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.3W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 108.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 108.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.6N 109.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.1N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 108.3W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON IRWIN.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN