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Hurricane.com - Advisory



Expires:No;;546818
WTPZ31 KNHC 201439
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...FERNANDA STEADILY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 139.2W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 139.2 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Fernanda could become a tropical depression on
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



 

Expires:No;;546834
WTPZ41 KNHC 201440
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Since the last advisory, Fernanda has become significantly sheared
with the low-level center now exposed to the southwest of a rather
small area of deep convection.  The initial intensity is reduced to
55 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates, and it is
possible that this is generous.  While the sea surface temperatures
along the forecast track should increase, a combination of
continued moderate-to-strong shear and entrainment of dry air
should keep Fernanda steadily weakening through the forecast
period. The cyclone is forecast to weaken to a depression in 24-36
h and degenerate into a remnant low shortly thereafter, with the
new intensity forecast being an update of the previous forecast.

The now-exposed center is a little west of the previous advisory
position, and the initial motion is now 285/8.  Fernanda is
expected to move generally west-northwestward through the forecast
period as the increasingly weak and shallow vortex is steered by
the low-level trade winds.  The new forecast track is parallel to,
but south of, the previous track based on the current position and
motion.  However, it lies to the north of the consensus models and
the center of the guidance envelope, and if current trends continue
some additional southward adjustment of the track could occur later
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 18.2N 139.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 18.6N 140.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 19.0N 142.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 19.5N 144.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 20.1N 145.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z 21.5N 149.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z 22.5N 154.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1200Z 24.0N 160.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;546708
WTPZ21 KNHC 201438
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062017
1500 UTC THU JUL 20 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 139.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 139.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 138.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.6N 140.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N 142.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.5N 144.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.1N 145.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 149.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 154.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.0N 160.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 139.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




 

	

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