Hurricane.com - Advisory
Expires:No;;801210
WTPZ32 KNHC 130234
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122011
800 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011
...DEPRESSION WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 93.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3
MPH...6 KM/H...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AND THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION COULD PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER STEEP TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Expires:No;;801248
WTPZ42 KNHC 130236
TCDEP2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122011
800 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM NOW LACKS
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THEREFORE THE DEPRESSION IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.
SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS QUITE WEAK AND THE INTENSITY
IS SET GENEROUSLY TO 25 KT. WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS...THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE.
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING
ABOUT 040/3. A VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.
EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...A BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 16.6N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.8N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
More information
Expires:No;;801189 WTPZ22 KNHC 130234 TCMEP2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122011 0300 UTC THU OCT 13 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 93.8W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 93.8W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 93.9W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.8N 93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 93.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER PASCH