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Hurricane.com - Advisory

Expires:No;;591243
WTPZ33 KNHC 152034
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

...REMNANTS OF BUD EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
STATE OF SONORA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 110.2W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud
was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 110.2 West.  The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.  On
the forecast track, the center of the remnant low is expected to
move inland over southern Sonora tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Bud is expected to dissipate on
Saturday over the high terrain of the Mexican state of Sonora.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated totals of 6 inches across southern and eastern Sonora in
northwestern Mexico through Saturday.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Remnant moisture from Bud is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of
rain with isolated totals of 3 inches across the southwestern U.S.
into the southern and central Rockies through Saturday.  These
rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

WIND:  Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible through
tonight along the coast of mainland Mexico in northern Sinaloa and
southern Sonora states.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of western mainland Mexico during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Bud. For additional information on the remnant low please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web
at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



 

Expires:No;;591349
WTPZ43 KNHC 152035
TCDEP3
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
300 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018
 
Bud has been without organized deep convection since around 0600
UTC, and is now a remnant low. An earlier ASCAT-B pass around 1640
UTC showed an area of 30-35 kt winds well east of the center off the
coast between Altata and Topolobampo, but some of these winds could
have been topographically enhanced. The initial intensity remains 30
kt for this final advisory. The remnant low should gradually weaken
and then dissipate shortly after landfall.
 
ASCAT data and visible imagery suggest that the initial motion is a
bit to the left of previous estimates, with the current estimate
355/09. The remnant low should continue moving northward through
dissipation between a mid-level ridge to the east and an approaching
longwave trough to the west.
 
Although the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate
on Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to
spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the
southwestern U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant
rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further
information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued
by your local weather service office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 25.9N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  16/0600Z 27.3N 110.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brennan
 


 

    

More information

Expires:No;;591241
WTPZ23 KNHC 152033
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032018
2100 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 110.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 110.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.3N 110.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 110.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON BUD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE
SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



 

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