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Hurricane.com - Advisory

Expires:No;;960016
WTPZ33 KNHC 192038
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182019
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...OCTAVE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 125.7W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave
was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 125.7 West.  Octave
is moving toward the east-northeast near 2 mph.  A slow and erratic
motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Berg



 

Expires:No;;960228
WTPZ43 KNHC 192039
TCDEP3
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182019
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019
 
Deep convection has not returned, now being absent for at least 12
hours.  The environment around Octave is dry and stable, and it is
unlikely that significant convection will come back any time soon.
Octave has therefore become a remnant low, and its maximum winds are
estimated to be 30 kt based on recent scatterometer data.  The
remnant low is expected to linger for at least the next 5 days with
its intensity holding steady or decreasing due to moderate
southeasterly shear and mid-level relative humidities of 30-40
percent.
 
The initial motion remains very slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2
kt.  The remnant low is trapped in a weak steering regime, and it
is expected to meander for the next 5 days, only moving a net
distance of 50-100 n mi during that period.  A slight westward
adjustment was made to this last NHC official forecast to account
for the latest multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF, which lies
along the western edge of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 11.6N 125.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 


 

    

More information

Expires:No;;959981
WTPZ23 KNHC 192037
TCMEP3
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182019
2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  70 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 125.7W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 


 

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