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Hurricane.com - Advisory

Expires:No;;736749
WTPZ33 KNHC 081433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032019
800 AM PDT Mon Jul 08 2019

...COSME DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 120.7W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme
was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 120.7 West.  The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days with a decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the remnant low
is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Cosme. For additional information on this system please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart



 

Expires:No;;736805
WTPZ43 KNHC 081433
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032019
800 AM PDT Mon Jul 08 2019

The combination of cold sea surface temperatures, dry and stable
air, and modest westerly shear has taken a toll on Cosme.  The
cyclone has been devoid of any central deep convection for more
than 12 hours, and has degenerated into a large swirl of mostly
cold-air stratocumulus clouds.  As a result, the system no longer
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last
advisory.  The winds are estimated to be near 25 kt with higher
gusts based on an overnight ASCAT-C scatterometer pass.  Additional
weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is expected to dissipate
in a couple of days while it moves slowly northwestward over cooler
waters.

For additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 20.5N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  09/0000Z 21.0N 121.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  09/1200Z 21.6N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/0000Z 22.1N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;736722
WTPZ23 KNHC 081432
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032019
1500 UTC MON JUL 08 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.7W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.7W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.0N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.6N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.1N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 120.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE COSME, PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02
KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




 

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