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Hurricane.com - Advisory

Expires:No;;142238
WTPZ33 KNHC 212032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...KIKO NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MUCH WEAKER WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 131.6W
ABOUT 1440 MI...2320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 131.6 West.  Kiko is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A motion
toward the southwest or west-southwest is forecast to occur through
Sunday night, followed by a westward to northwestward motion Monday
and Tuesday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



 

Expires:No;;142296
WTPZ43 KNHC 212033
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019

A pair of ASCAT passes within the past 2-3 hours revealed maximum
winds of 40-45 kt, so Kiko's intensity has been lowered to 45 kt.
The low-level center appears to be moving out from under the
convective cirrus, and the cloud-top temperatures have been warming
significantly for much of the day.  According to analyses from
UW-CIMMS, about 15 kt of southwesterly shear is affecting the
cyclone, but there is a chance that the shear will decrease a bit
as Kiko loses latitude during the next 36 hours.  On the negative
side, Kiko will remain in a relatively dry and somewhat stable air
mass, and these conditions could limit the amount of deep convection
the cyclone is able to produce.  The new NHC intensity forecast is
very close to the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model, keeping a
relatively steady intensity for the next 3 days.  By days 4 and 5,
an increase in shear and lower oceanic heat content should lead to
weakening, and simulated infrared satellite imagery from the GFS
and ECMWF suggest that Kiko's deep convection may dissipate for
good by that time.  As a result, the official forecast now shows
Kiko becoming a remnant low by day 5.

Kiko is now moving slowly west-southwestward, or 250/4 kt.  An
elongated mid- to upper-level trough extending from California to
near the Hawaiian Islands is digging southward, which is forcing
the subtropical ridge--and Kiko--to lose latitude during the next
36 hours.  After that time, the western portion of the trough is
forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to
turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4.  Once a remnant low, Kiko
is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to
turn back to the southwest.  The updated NHC track is a little
farther south during the first 2 days to account for the adjusted
initial position, otherwise it's very close the previous forecast
and the various multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 18.0N 131.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 17.4N 132.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 16.5N 133.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 15.9N 134.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 16.1N 135.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 18.3N 137.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 19.0N 138.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 17.7N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;142164
WTPZ23 KNHC 212032
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 131.6W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  30SE  45SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 131.6W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 131.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.4N 132.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.5N 133.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 134.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 135.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.3N 137.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 138.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.7N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 131.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 


 

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