Hurricane.com - Advisory

Expires:No;;349408
WTPZ34 KNHC 302034
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2011
 
...HILARY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 122.0W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.0 WEST. 
HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A
GENERALLY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 


 

Expires:No;;349500
WTPZ44 KNHC 302035
TCDEP4
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2011
 
HILARY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COMPLETELY WARMED
ABOVE -50C.  SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
FOR AT LEAST 18 HOURS...HILARY IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT
THIS TIME.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON A 1716
UTC ASCAT PASS...BUT HILARY IS OVER WATERS OF 22C AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT.  THE REMNANT LOW IS BEING STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD AND THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
HILARY.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER 
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 23.6N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  01/0600Z 23.8N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  01/1800Z 23.8N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0600Z 23.7N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1800Z 23.5N 124.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

 

    

More information

Expires:No;;349406
WTPZ24 KNHC 302033
TCMEP4
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
2100 UTC FRI SEP 30 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 122.0W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 122.0W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 121.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.8N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.8N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.7N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.5N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 122.0W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG