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Hurricane.com - Advisory


Expires:No;;546129
WTPZ34 KNHC 220232
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...WILLA FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND,
AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 107.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has replaced the Hurricane Watch from San
Blas to Mazatlan with a Hurricane Warning, and has replaced the
Tropical Storm Watch from north of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
with a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected overnight and Monday. Willa is expected to
accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the
Islas Marias on Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern
coast of mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional
strengthening is expected overnight and early Monday. While some
weakening is forecast Monday night and Tuesday, Willa is expected to
be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night,
especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico.  This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2
to 4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast
Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches
possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas Monday night and Tuesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



 

Expires:No;;546141
WTPZ44 KNHC 220232
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Willa has continued to rapidly intensify this evening.  Satellite
images show a well-defined circular eye with a surrounding ring of
cold cloud tops that are near -80 deg C over the southeastern
quadrant.  The initial intensity is set to 125 kt, which is near the
latest Dvorak ADT estimates from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin.  Willa has strengthened at an incredible rate since
genesis, intensifying from a tropical depression to a category 4
hurricane in less than 48 hours.

Willa is gradually turning toward the right, with the initial motion
estimated to be 340/6 kt.  The hurricane is expected to turn
northward on Monday as it moves around the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge to the east, followed by a faster northeastward
motion Monday night and Tuesday when a shortwave trough approaches
the system.  The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.  On the
forecast track, Willa is expected to move over Las Islas Marias on
Tuesday and then move inland over southwestern and west-central
Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

The hurricane has certainty taken advantage of the near ideal
environmental conditions and since these conditions will persist a
little longer, some additional strengthening is shown in the short
term.  However, some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to
eyewall replacement cycles.  The models then show a gradual increase
in shear and a decrease in available moisture around 24 hours, and
these factors should cause a slow weakening trend. Regardless,
Willa is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane, bringing multiple
life-threatening hazards to the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is
forecast after the system moves inland and interacts with the
mountainous terrain.  The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high
end of the model guidance through dissipation.

Key Messages:

1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
Islas Marias and the coast of southwestern Mexico by late Tuesday or
Wednesday bringing a life-threatening storm surge and flash flooding
along with damaging hurricane-force winds. A Hurricane Warning is
in effect for these areas, and residents should rush preparations to
completion to protect life and property and follow any advice given
by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 17.7N 107.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 18.6N 107.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 19.7N 107.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 20.7N 107.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 22.1N 106.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 26.2N 101.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;546128
WTPZ24 KNHC 220231
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018
0300 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM SAN
BLAS TO MAZATLAN WITH A HURRICANE WARNING... AND HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 107.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  941 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 107.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.6N 107.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.7N 107.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.7N 107.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.1N 106.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 26.2N 101.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 107.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




 

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