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Hurricane.com - Advisory


Expires:No;;545848
WTPZ35 KNHC 021434
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Rosa Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018

...ROSA DISSIPATES BUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 114.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Rosa were located near
latitude 29.7 North, longitude 114.2 West.  The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and they are expected to
move over the Desert Southwest by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations into Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For more information please see products
issued by your local NWS forecast office and Storm Summary products
issued by the Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



 

Expires:No;;545910
WTPZ45 KNHC 021434
TCDEP5

Remnants Of Rosa Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that
Rosa has become an elongated trough with multiple swirls along its
axis.  Therefore, Rosa no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone,
and this is the last advisory issued on this system by the National
Hurricane Center.  The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt
assuming some decrease in winds from the ASCAT pass last night.

Although Rosa has dissipated, heavy rainfall and life-threatening
flash flooding are expected to continue over portions of
northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest during the next day or
so.  For more information on the rainfall threat, please see
products from your local NWS forecast office and Storm Summary
products issued by the Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 29.7N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS
 12H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



 

    

More information

Expires:No;;545849
WTPZ25 KNHC 021434
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 114.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 114.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 114.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 114.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ROSA

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




 

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