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Expires:No;;607267
WTPA35 PHFO 140238
TCPCP5
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Olivia Advisory Number  54
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP172018
500 PM HST Thu Sep 13 2018
 
...OLIVIA A POST-TROPICAL LOW AND CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 164.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM ENE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Olivia
was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 164.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24
km/h). This motion will continue into Friday, followed by a turn
toward the west-northwest on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, with dissipation expected by Sunday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center on this system.
 
$$
Forecaster Wroe
 


 

Expires:No;;607399
WTPA45 PHFO 140242
TCDCP5
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Olivia Discussion Number  54
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP172018
500 PM HST Thu Sep 13 2018
 
An earlier flare up of deep convection within the northeast and east
flanks of Olivia caused the low-level center to slow down, then
accelerate off to the west as nearby thunderstorms collapsed. Strong
westerly vertical wind shear of around 35 kt has now displaced the
diminishing convection nearly 90 n mi to the east of the elongated
and fully exposed low-level center. HFO came up with a subjective
Dvorak current intensity estimate of 1.5, while JTWC and SAB are no
longer classifying the system. Given the lack of organized deep 
convection, Olivia is deemed a post-tropical low with an intensity
of 30 kt, and this will be the last advisory.

The initial motion is set at west (260 degrees) at 13 kt. The weak
low-level center was earlier drawn toward a pulsing area of
convection, then recently emerged farther north than expected,
leading to some uncertainty in the initial motion. A low-level ridge
to the north will steer the remnant low of Olivia westward through
tomorrow. Increased interaction with a developing upper-level low
sitting just north of the remnant surface low will cause a turn
toward the west-northwest Friday night and Saturday. The upper-level
low will maintain strong vertical wind shear that should lead to
dissipation of the remnant surface low during the weekend. The
intensity forecast is in line with the SHIPS and LGEM guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 18.9N 164.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  14/1200Z 18.8N 166.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  15/0000Z 19.1N 168.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1200Z 19.8N 171.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0000Z 20.8N 173.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Wroe
 


 

    

More information

Expires:No;;607268
WTPA25 PHFO 140239
TCMCP5
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  54
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP172018
0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 164.2W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 164.2W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 163.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.8N 166.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 168.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.8N 171.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.8N 173.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 164.2W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER WROE
 
 


 

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