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What is a Hurricane?

A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, which is a generic term for a low pressure system that generally forms in the tropics. The cyclone is accompanied by thunderstorms and, in the Northern Hemisphere, a counterclockwise circulation of winds near the earth's surface. Tropical cyclones are classified as follows:

 

Tropical Depression
An organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 kt) or less. Sustained winds are a 1-minute average wind measured at about 33 ft (10 meters) above the surface. While 1 knot = 1 nautical mile per hour or 1.15 statute miles per hour and is abbreviated as "kt".

Tropical Storm
An organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)

Hurricane
An intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 kt) or higher

 

Hurricanes are categorized according to the strength of their winds using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. A Category 1 storm has the lowest wind speeds, while a Category 5 hurricane has the strongest. These are relative terms, because lower category storms can sometimes inflict greater damage than higher category storms, depending on where they strike and the particular hazards they bring. In fact, tropical storms can also produce significant damage and loss of life, mainly due to flooding.

Hurricane Names

When the the winds from these storms reach 39 mph (34 kts), the cyclones are given names. Years ago, an international committee developed names for Atlantic cyclones (The History of Naming Hurricanes). In 1979 a six year rotating list of Atlantic storm names was adopted — alternating between male and female hurricane names. Storm names are used to facilitate geographic referencing, for warning services, for legal issues, and to reduce confusion when two or more tropical cyclones occur at the same time. Through a vote of the World Meteorological Organization Region IV Subcommittee, Atlantic cyclone names are retired usually when hurricanes result in substantial damage or death or for other special circumstances.

(Thanks to the NHC.)

Hurricane & Tropical Storm

Advisory


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook-
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011754
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche
about 300 miles east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico. An Air Force
Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the
low to see if a well-defined center of circulation has formed.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development, and
this system is likely to become a tropical depression later today or
on Tuesday while it moves west-northwestward near 10 mph. Interests
along the western Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this disturbance, since watches or warnings could soon be
required. Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy
rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico today
and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland Mexico on
Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Summary for Tropical Depression FIVE (AT5/AL052014)- ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 the center of FIVE was located near 20.1, -93.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression FIVE Public Advisory Number 1-Issued at 400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

000
WTNT35 KNHC 012035
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 93.6W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUXPAN NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Advisory Number 1-Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

000
WTNT25 KNHC 012035
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUXPAN NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N  93.6W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N  93.6W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  93.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 21.1N  94.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.9N  96.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.4N  97.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N  93.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Discussion Number 1-Issued at 400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

000
WTNT45 KNHC 012036
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
low pressure area over the southwest Gulf of Mexico found a
well-defined center of circulation.  The system has a curved band of
deep convection that wraps around the southern and eastern portions
of the circulation.  Thus the system is being designated as a
tropical depression at this time.  The maximum winds reported by the
aircraft so far support an intensity of 25 kt.  Although the
cyclone is situated over very warm waters of near 30 deg C, the
atmospheric environment is not ideal for strengthening.  Dynamical
models indicate that significant northerly to northwesterly
vertical shear should affect the tropical cyclone for the next 36
hours and this is likely to limit intensification up to landfall.
After landfall, dissipation should be quick due to the mountainous
terrain of Mexico.  The official wind speed forecast is a little
above the intensity model consensus.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or around 295/11.  The
steering scenario appears to be fairly straightforward.  The flow
to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast should maintain a west-northwestward track for the next 36
hours, i.e. through the expected time of landfall.  The official
track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 20.1N  93.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 21.1N  94.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 21.9N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 22.4N  97.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Tropical Depression FIVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1-Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

000
FONT15 KNHC 012036
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014               
2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   2( 2)  14(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   6( 6)  24(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    



Tropical Depression FIVE Graphics- Tropical Depression FIVE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2014 20:36:47 GMT

Tropical Depression FIVE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Sep 2014 20:36:46 GMT
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