Hurricane Advisory & Information

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2026 21:22:29 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026 000 WTNT44 KNHC 062039 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of America has recently developed a closed circulation, though it might still be elongated. Associated showers and thunderstorms have also become better organized, and this system now meets the criteria to be a tropical depression, the ninth one of the season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB. The depression has barely moved over the past 6 to 12 hours, with the initial motion estimated to be 120/1 kt. The cyclone is expected to track slowly eastward or east-northeastward during the next couple of days while it moves in the flow near the base of a broad deep-layer trough, and could bring gusty winds and heavy rains to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. By Friday, a sharp turn to the northeast is expected when a shortwave trough forms over Texas and a ridge strengthens over the western Atlantic. This pattern change should cause the system to accelerate toward the northern Gulf Coast on Friday and into early Saturday. The NHC track forecast lies near the fast side of the guidance, in best agreement with the GDMI and ECAI aids. It should be noted that there is significant uncertainty in where the system makes the northeast turn and how fast it moves toward the coast. It appears that the stronger the system gets, the faster it will move toward the coast given the strength of the deep-layer flow. The NOAA G-IV jet is currently sampling the environment and special upper-air soundings are being […]

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2026 21:22:29 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026 000 WTNT34 KNHC 062038 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 95.6W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula and the U.S. northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 95.6 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h) and an east to east-northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days. By Friday, a turn to the northeast is anticipated. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression […]